By : Chinasaokwu Helen Okoro
Don’t Fight a War You Can’t Win” — Economist Warns PENGASSAN in Dangote Clash
An economic storm is brewing between Nigeria’s powerful oil workers’ union and Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote — and according to Professor Ken Ife, it’s a battle the union simply cannot win.
The economist and policy expert issued a stern warning to the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) following their strike action against Dangote Group, saying the billionaire has far more leverage in the ongoing standoff.
Speaking during an interview with Channels Television, Professor Ife cautioned the union to reconsider its approach. “Don’t fight a war you cannot win,” he said pointedly. “You can’t stop that company; it is in the free trade zone. Dangote can decide not to sell one litre of petrol to Nigeria. You cannot stop that. But if he decides he’s going to do it, he’s going to do it. So, let’s be real. He has nothing to lose.”
The union’s action stems from the dismissal of 800 workers at the Dangote Refinery, which recently began operations in the Lagos Free Trade Zone. In response, PENGASSAN declared an indefinite strike, raising fears of potential disruptions to fuel supply in the country. But Professor Ife believes the union is miscalculating its influence.
He argued that prioritizing the grievances of a few hundred workers over the economic wellbeing of over 230 million Nigerians is both risky and economically unsound. “You don’t equate 800 workers to 230 million Nigerians. You don’t equate 800 workers to 4.2 million employees in this country,” he stressed.
The economist further highlighted the disproportionate economic impact of the strike compared to the wages of the affected employees. He calculated that the country could be losing an estimated ₦14.5 billion daily due to the shutdown, a figure that dwarfs the monthly wage bill of the dismissed workers.
“If the 800 workers are receiving ₦100,000 a month, that will come to only ₦80 million naira. But look at what you are going to lose in a day,” he explained.
Nigeria, already grappling with fuel shortages and economic challenges, may not be able to absorb such massive losses. Professor Ife warned that if the standoff continues, it could destabilize the country’s fragile energy supply chain.
He also cautioned that the union’s approach might backfire on the very workers it seeks to protect. By shutting down operations, the union could close the door to meaningful negotiations and worsen job insecurity. “You are destroying the jobs of these workers because you are closing the door for any further negotiation. And then what happens? You’re not even going to allow other people to enter this space,” he asserted.
The Dangote Refinery, a $20 billion mega-project, is seen by many as a potential game-changer for Nigeria’s energy sector, which relies heavily on imported refined petroleum products despite being a major crude oil producer. The facility is designed to produce 650,000 barrels of refined products per day, positioning Nigeria to achieve self-sufficiency and even become a net exporter.
With this level of strategic importance, Professor Ife argued, the refinery’s operations cannot be easily disrupted by union actions. He stressed that PENGASSAN should pursue dialogue and realistic demands rather than confrontation.
The clash between Dangote and the union comes at a time when Nigerians are facing soaring fuel prices and economic hardship. Any prolonged disruption at the refinery could worsen fuel scarcity, increase transportation costs, and deepen inflationary pressures.
While labour unions play a critical role in protecting workers’ rights, experts like Professor Ife are urging PENGASSAN to balance their demands with national economic realities. “It is not about Dangote winning or the union winning. It is about Nigeria not losing,” he said.
As tensions simmer, all eyes are now on how both parties will navigate this high-stakes standoff. For now, the message from Professor Ife is clear: pick your battles wisely.
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