By Ollus Ndomu
The Sahel is now under firm military rule. Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso have removed civilian governments, citing security failures and sovereignty concerns. At least for now, their juntas appear stable. But history suggests this may not last.
Governance by Force: A Temporary Fix?
Military regimes often promise order but struggle with governance. Tchiani in Niger, Traoré in Burkina Faso, and Goïta in Mali all took power through force. They pledged transitions but extended their rule.
Burkina Faso’s Capt. Ibrahim Traoré has resisted foreign pressure, even cutting ties with France. Mali’s Col. Assimi Goïta has done the same, strengthening ties with Russia. Niger’s Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani has followed suit. Their anti-West rhetoric is popular, but can it translate into long-term stability?
Lessons from History
West Africa has seen military rulers before. In the 1980s and 1990s, juntas collapsed under economic mismanagement and public unrest. Liberia’s Samuel Doe, Sierra Leone’s Valentine Strasser, and Gambia’s Yahya Jammeh all came through coups. All lost power violently or under pressure.
Mali’s own history is telling. A coup in 2012 led to a weak civilian transition. Then came another in 2020. The cycle of military rule rarely ends well.
Challenges Ahead
- Security Risks – The juntas justify their rule with promises of defeating jihadists. But attacks continue. If military gains stall, public frustration will rise.
- Economic Strain – These countries need foreign aid, but juntas have rejected Western partners. Can they sustain their economies without them?
- Political Legitimacy – Military rulers lack electoral mandates. Prolonged rule invites internal dissent.
- Regional Isolation – ECOWAS opposes prolonged military rule. It has imposed sanctions before. If juntas stay too long, pressure will mount.
The Real Test: Transition or Entrenchment?
Military governments promise stability, but history suggests they will face resistance. If they delay transitions, they risk the fate of past juntas—either overthrown or forced out. The next five years will determine if the Sahel remains under military control or returns to civilian rule.
For now, the juntas hold power. But power is never permanent.
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